The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has hit pause on its rate-cutting cycle. While the OCR dropped six times in 2025, the most recent decision in February 2026 kept it steady at 2.25% — and analysts are now asking what comes next, and when. The short answer involves a series of scheduled review dates spread across the rest of 2026, with May 27th marking the next major inflection point.

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Current OCR: 2.25% · Next Review: 27 May 2026 · Recent Change: Held steady since August 2024 · 2026 Dates: May 27, Sep 2 · Review Frequency: 7 per year

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
  • Direction of OCR after May 2026 remains uncertain (Squirrel)
  • Whether oil shocks or inflation surprises will prompt off-cycle adjustments (The Tag Team)
  • Exact pace of any rate normalization through 2027–2028 (Westpac IQ)
3Timeline signal
  • RBNZ signaled steady hold through first half of 2026 before potential pivot (Squirrel)
  • NZIER Shadow Board consensus: hikes should begin in second half of 2026 (NZIER)
  • Westpac forecasts first hike to 2.50% in December 2026 (Westpac IQ)
4What’s next
  • Next Monetary Policy Review: 8 April 2026 (The Tag Team)
  • Next full Monetary Policy Statement: 27 May 2026 (Squirrel)
  • Watch for guidance on whether “neutral OCR” transition begins in H2 2026 (Naked Finance)

Here is what the RBNZ’s schedule and recent decisions tell us about where the OCR might be heading.

The key facts table summarizes the current OCR position and upcoming announcement schedule.

Label Value
Current OCR Rate 2.25%
Last Review Date February 2026
Next Announcement 27 May 2026
Review Frequency 7 per year
Recent Trend Six cuts from Feb 2025 to Nov 2025, now paused

How often does the Reserve Bank review the OCR?

The RBNZ conducts seven OCR reviews per year, roughly every six weeks (The Tag Team). These reviews come in two forms: Monetary Policy Statements (MPS), which are quarterly and include economic forecasts, and Monetary Policy Reviews (MPR), which are interim updates (Squirrel). The full schedule for 2026 has been published in advance, allowing borrowers and investors to plan around each announcement date.

Review schedule

The confirmed 2026 review calendar includes the following dates:

  • 18 February 2026 — MPS (OCR held at 2.25%)
  • 8 April 2026 — MPR
  • 27 May 2026 — MPS
  • 8 July 2026 — MPR
  • 2 September 2026 — MPS
  • 28 October 2026 — MPR
  • 9 December 2026 — MPS

Source: Squirrel, MoneyHub NZ

What this means

Seven annual reviews gives the RBNZ roughly one decision point every seven weeks — a pace that lets it respond to data without overreacting to short-term fluctuations.

Historical frequency

From August 2024 through November 2025, the RBNZ cut the OCR six times in succession, bringing it down from 4.00% to 2.25% (MoneyHub NZ). The February 2026 review marked the first time since August 2024 that the rate was held unchanged, signaling a pause in the easing cycle.

Bottom line: With seven scheduled reviews spread across 2026, there are regular opportunities for the RBNZ to adjust course — but current guidance points toward a hold for the first half of the year.

What this means: The RBNZ has built a cadence of regular reviews that gives it flexibility without overreacting, and the current signal points to patience over action for the next several months.

What is the new OCR rate today?

The OCR stands at 2.25% following the RBNZ’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Review. This decision was delivered on 18 February 2026 at 2:00pm NZT (Naked Finance). The RBNZ’s decision to hold came amid ongoing uncertainty about inflation and global economic conditions, with analysts broadly agreeing the pause was appropriate (NZIER).

Current rate details

The 2.25% rate represents the outcome of six consecutive cuts made between February 2025 and November 2025. MoneyHub NZ tracks the sequence as follows:

  • 19 February 2025: cut to 3.75%
  • 9 April 2025: cut to 3.50%
  • 28 May 2025: cut to 3.25%
  • 20 August 2025: cut to 3.00%
  • 8 October 2025: cut to 2.50%
  • 26 November 2025: cut to 2.25%
The catch

Six cuts in under a year is fast by RBNZ standards. The pause in early 2026 reflects the bank’s caution about moving too far below its neutral estimate of 3.75%.

Recent decisions

The NZIER Shadow Board recommended holding at the February 2026 meeting, noting that economic conditions did not yet warrant further easing. The Shadow Board’s next release is scheduled for 7 April 2026, ahead of the RBNZ’s MPR on 8 April 2026 (NZIER). That April release will provide an early signal for markets ahead of the May decision.

Bottom line: The current OCR of 2.25% is the result of six cuts over eleven months. The RBNZ is now in a wait-and-see mode, watching inflation and growth data before deciding whether to cut further or begin normalizing rates.

The implication: The RBNZ moved quickly with six cuts in less than a year, and the February pause signals the bank is cautious about staying too far below its neutral OCR estimate of 3.75%.

What date is the next interest rate decision?

The next OCR decision is scheduled for 27 May 2026, when the RBNZ will release its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. This MPS will include updated forecasts and is widely seen as the date when the bank could signal a shift in its rate trajectory — either toward further cuts or toward eventual normalization.

Upcoming 2026 dates

The full sequence of remaining 2026 announcements is:

  • 8 April 2026 — MPR (interim update, no full forecasts)
  • 27 May 2026 — MPS (full quarterly statement with forecasts)
  • 8 July 2026 — MPR
  • 2 September 2026 — MPS
  • 28 October 2026 — MPR
  • 9 December 2026 — MPS

Source: Squirrel, MoneyHub NZ

The upshot

May 27 is the key date for anyone watching OCR direction. The MPS will show whether the RBNZ still plans to hold, or whether its latest thinking points toward a rate increase later in 2026.

Announcement schedule

RBNZ decisions are published on its official website, with press releases typically going out at 2:00pm NZT. The distinction between MPS (quarterly, full forecasts) and MPR (interim, brief updates) matters: the May, September, and December statements will carry the most detail and are the dates most likely to move markets.

Bottom line: The next OCR decision is 27 May 2026. Between now and then, the April MPR on the 8th will provide a midway check — but May is when the RBNZ will lay out its full thinking for the rest of the year.

What this means: May 27 is the inflection point for OCR direction. The May MPS carries the most market-moving potential of any 2026 announcement.

When is the next OCR announcement NZ?

The next OCR announcement in New Zealand is scheduled for 8 April 2026 (MPR), followed by the full MPS on 27 May 2026. You can follow live updates via the RBNZ’s official website, financial news outlets, and economic calendars that track NZ monetary policy events (MoneyHub NZ).

Live updates

When the RBNZ releases its OCR decision, it accompanies the rate announcement with a press statement and the relevant MPS or MPR document. These are published simultaneously on the RBNZ’s website and typically picked up within minutes by financial news outlets. The February 2026 announcement, for instance, was reported by Naked Finance and Squirrel within hours of the 2:00pm NZT release.

How to follow

Bookmark the RBNZ’s official announcements page, subscribe to updates from financial outlets like MoneyHub NZ or Naked Finance, or use an economic calendar such as MQL5 to set reminders ahead of each review date.

Bottom line: The next OCR announcement is 8 April 2026, with the more detailed May statement due on the 27th. The RBNZ website remains the primary source for official confirmation as each date arrives.

The pattern: The RBNZ website is the definitive source for OCR announcements, with press releases and policy documents published simultaneously.

Will the OCR keep dropping?

Most analysts and advisory groups do not expect further OCR cuts in 2026. Instead, the current consensus points toward the RBNZ holding through the first half of the year before beginning a gradual normalization of rates in the second half. The direction and timing of any increase remain uncertain and will depend on how inflation and economic growth evolve.

Predictions for 2026–2027

Forecasts differ in specifics but converge on a holding pattern through mid-2026:

  • Westpac IQ: First OCR hike to 2.50% in December 2026, followed by faster tightening in 2027 to 4% by end-2027, peaking at 4.25% in 2028. Neutral OCR assumed at 3.75% (Westpac IQ)
  • NZIER Shadow Board: Broad consensus that hikes should start in the second half of 2026, targeting 2.25–2.75% over the next year (NZIER)
  • Squirrel: RBNZ signaled intention to hold fairly steady in 2026 before starting a slow transition back to neutral OCR toward year-end (Squirrel)
Why this matters

If Westpac’s forecast holds, the OCR would climb from 2.25% to 4.25% over roughly two years — an increase of two full percentage points. For a borrower with a $500,000 mortgage, that could translate to tens of thousands of dollars in additional interest costs over the life of the loan.

Factors influencing

The RBNZ’s decisions are data-dependent, with inflation and economic growth being the primary inputs. The bank’s inflation target band is 1–3%, and it tracks a range of indicators to determine whether the economy is running hot, cool, or at target (The Tag Team). Potential triggers for OCR adjustments before the scheduled dates include:

  • A surprise resurgence in inflation above the 3% band
  • Stronger-than-expected economic growth
  • External shocks, such as oil price spikes, that push costs higher
  • A sharp deterioration in employment or growth that warrants further cuts

Source: The Tag Team

Bottom line: Further OCR cuts look unlikely in 2026. The more probable scenario involves a hold through mid-year and gradual hikes starting in the second half — though the exact pace will hinge on inflation and growth data as it arrives.

The implication: The convergence of forecasts toward a hold followed by gradual hikes means borrowers should prepare for potential rate increases, though the exact timing remains data-dependent.

OCR timeline

The timeline table below maps the key decision points in the RBNZ’s current rate cycle.

Date or period Event
August 2024 Began OCR reductions (first cut of the current cycle)
February 2025 RBNZ cut to 3.75% — first of six consecutive reductions
November 2025 OCR cut to 2.25% — end of the easing sequence
February 2026 OCR held at 2.25% — pause signaled
27 December 2026 Next Monetary Policy Statement — potential direction signal
December 2026 Westpac forecasts first hike to 2.50% (Westpac IQ)

What we know vs. what remains uncertain

Confirmed

  • OCR held at 2.25% on 18 February 2026
  • Seven scheduled reviews remain in 2026
  • Six cuts dropped the OCR from 4.00% to 2.25% between Feb 2025 and Nov 2025
  • RBNZ signaled intent to hold steady before moving to neutral OCR toward year-end

Rumors and open questions

  • Whether the first hike comes in August, September, or later in 2026
  • Whether oil shocks or inflation surprises trigger an unscheduled response
  • How aggressively the RBNZ tightens if it begins raising rates
  • Whether the neutral OCR is closer to 3.75% or slightly lower

What analysts are saying

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has announced that the Official Cash Rate remains unchanged at 2.25 percent following its February 2026 Monetary Policy Review.

— The Tag Team, financial advisors

RBNZ signalled its intention to hold the OCR fairly steady in 2026 before starting the slow transition back to a ‘neutral’ OCR sometime towards the back end of the year.

— Squirrel, housing market analysts

Shadow Board’s broad consensus that the RBNZ should commence raising the OCR in the second half of 2026.

— NZIER Shadow Board, economic research group

We continue with our longstanding view of a first hike in the OCR to 2.50% in December 2026.

— Westpac IQ, economists

For borrowers with floating or short-term fixed mortgages, the RBNZ’s pause is a window to review refinancing options before potentially higher rates arrive. The next six weeks offer a narrow opportunity to lock in the current 2.25% environment — or at minimum, to plan for the May announcement. For lenders, the uncertainty about rate direction makes this a good moment to stress-test portfolios against scenarios where the OCR climbs to 3.00% or beyond over the next 18 months. Either way, May 27 is the date that will either confirm the hold or signal that the next chapter of New Zealand’s rate cycle is about to begin.

Related reading: ANZ NZ Swift Code · ASB to ANZ Transfer Time

Additional sources

fxstreet.com

This Reserve Bank OCR delay has seen NZ lenders like ASB made mortgage rate changes throughout 2024-2025 in step with economic uncertainty ahead of the May 2026 decision.

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Frequently asked questions

What are OCR announcement dates 2026?

The confirmed 2026 OCR review dates are: 18 February, 8 April, 27 May, 8 July, 2 September, 28 October, and 9 December. Source: Squirrel, MoneyHub NZ

Is there an OCR announcement today?

Check the RBNZ’s official website or an economic calendar like MQL5 economic calendar for real-time updates. The next scheduled OCR decision is 8 April 2026 (MPR), with the full statement on 27 May 2026.

What are OCR predictions NZ?

Major forecasts for 2026 include a hold through mid-year, with Westpac projecting the first hike to 2.50% in December 2026, rising to 4% by end-2027. The NZIER Shadow Board expects hikes to begin in the second half of 2026. Sources: Westpac IQ, NZIER

Why might the Reserve Bank delay OCR changes?

The RBNZ waits for confirmatory economic data before moving the OCR. If inflation unexpectedly spikes or growth accelerates sharply, the bank could hike sooner than markets expect. Conversely, a slowdown could prompt further cuts. The May 2026 statement will be the clearest signal yet of the bank’s intentions. Source: The Tag Team

How does OCR affect mortgage rates?

The OCR influences the cost of borrowing across the economy. When the OCR rises, banks typically increase mortgage rates; when it falls, rates tend to drop. With the OCR at 2.25%, mortgage rates are near historically low levels — but forecasts of hikes to 4% or beyond would significantly increase monthly repayments for borrowers. Source: MoneyHub NZ

What factors delay OCR decisions?

Delays are not typical for RBNZ announcements, which follow a fixed schedule published months in advance. However, extraordinary economic shocks — such as the global financial crisis or COVID-19 — have historically led to unscheduled emergency rate moves. For 2026, no such disruptions have been announced. Source: Squirrel

When was the last OCR change?

The last OCR change was a cut to 2.25% on 26 November 2025. The February 2026 review maintained that level, marking the first hold since August 2024. Source: MoneyHub NZ